Friday, December 01, 2006
Don't Panic but if you do Panic First
EUR/USD 1.3320 Hi 1.3324 Low 1.3220
USD/JPY 115.52 Hi 116.40 Low 115.47
AUD/USD 0.7912 Hi 0.7924 Low 0.7873
EUR/JPY 153.88 Hi 154.12 Low 153.04
One question: how bad do things have to get before they impeach President George W. Bush?
I don't think we will have to wait long before the question is answered because "things" are just about to worsen considerably.
There are a lot of things a politician can get away with: foreign policy failure, lying to the electorate, electoral fraud, general incompetence and a terminal lack of charisma. But, generally speaking, one thing a politician can never get away with is impoverishing the people he represents. Kill 650,000 innocent civilians in Iraq and the populace is not pleased but then Iraq is a long way from home. Electoral fraud can make people antsy but not antsy enough to actually get off the couch and vote at the next election. Electoral turn out in the U.S. might have been high on November 7 but it is still abysmally low in comparison to turn outs in much of the rest of the developed world.
But once a politician screws up the economy in such a way that the results are visible to all concerned, well, in that case the people in couch potato land get mad. And once they get mad they look for a focus and when they look for a focus they will find: George W. Bush. Oh, and Fox News and Rupert Murdoch. But News Corp already seems to be quietly repositioning itself for the New World Order without George W. and his sidekick Tony Blair. Not that News Corp will get off unscathed. Make enough enemies and they lie in wait for you and what they wait for is a time of vulnerability. That time is now. It's called pay back. This is how Real Politics is really played.
Principally, though, it's Time Out for the Decider. We don't know the how but we do know the why and it's only a question of time.
He might not know it yet. There are, in fact, questions about what exactly he does know. While at the same time there are fewer and fewer questions about what he doesn't know. He doesn't know that you never start a war unless there is a very good reason to. He doesn't know that you never start a war unless you KNOW you can win it. He doesn't know you never start a war ill-prepared, unfunded, without real allies in a faraway, foreign, hostile land when your nation is already up to its eye balls in debt.
But he is about to learn about that. As are the American people. And when they find out what the real economic consequences of the Bush Administration's combined economic and foreign policy failure will be for them, Mr and Mrs Joe Average, then they are likely to get angry enough to actually do something. Which is not good news for George W. Bush. The concentration of executive power in his hands might delay the inevitable but it is unlikely to be enough to save him. It ain't over but the fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Unfortunately, whatever happens to George W. from here on in will not be enough to stop the economic train wreck from happening in the United States. Today's data, of course, was not good. This is likely to be the flavour of the data for a while yet. Nothing has been done to address any of the economic problems facing the United States. In fact the situation has been made considerably worse as a result of the financial burden of the Never Ending War on Terror and the George W. Tax Cuts.
The USD is in deep trouble. The U.S. Stock Market is about to find out what that means. For now, U.S. Treasuries are holding up as the whole financial market factors in RECESSION. U.S. Treasuries, for an offshore holder, are still poison because of the risk, nay near certainty, of a further substantial depreciation in the USD. Which means that the U.S. Treasury market is not "risk free" right now, it is simply likely to be the best performing sector for a U.S. Domestic Investor. For a Foreign Investor there is nothing remotely attractive on offer in the United States right now.
What is likely to happen from here is this:
First the USD gets hit. Then Stocks. Initially Treasuries will rally. U.S. Treasuries will underperform Fixed Interest instruments in the rest of the world and are ultimately expected to see selling pressure. Unless, of course, by some miracle innocent offshore investors can be persuaded to rock up to the next few Treasury Auctions. And that's something I wouldn't bet on.
When it's all done, in addition to the damage associated with the Real Estate Implosion, the average American is likely to find himself considerably poorer.
Why do I think that George W. could not have a more fitting legacy?
OIL 62.80
GOLD 655.00
GOLD is up, some more. Surprise, surprise. Should we see real panic next week then the case for GOLD will be stronger still.
This particular financial market crisis is not over yet.
USD/JPY 115.52 Hi 116.40 Low 115.47
AUD/USD 0.7912 Hi 0.7924 Low 0.7873
EUR/JPY 153.88 Hi 154.12 Low 153.04
One question: how bad do things have to get before they impeach President George W. Bush?
I don't think we will have to wait long before the question is answered because "things" are just about to worsen considerably.
There are a lot of things a politician can get away with: foreign policy failure, lying to the electorate, electoral fraud, general incompetence and a terminal lack of charisma. But, generally speaking, one thing a politician can never get away with is impoverishing the people he represents. Kill 650,000 innocent civilians in Iraq and the populace is not pleased but then Iraq is a long way from home. Electoral fraud can make people antsy but not antsy enough to actually get off the couch and vote at the next election. Electoral turn out in the U.S. might have been high on November 7 but it is still abysmally low in comparison to turn outs in much of the rest of the developed world.
But once a politician screws up the economy in such a way that the results are visible to all concerned, well, in that case the people in couch potato land get mad. And once they get mad they look for a focus and when they look for a focus they will find: George W. Bush. Oh, and Fox News and Rupert Murdoch. But News Corp already seems to be quietly repositioning itself for the New World Order without George W. and his sidekick Tony Blair. Not that News Corp will get off unscathed. Make enough enemies and they lie in wait for you and what they wait for is a time of vulnerability. That time is now. It's called pay back. This is how Real Politics is really played.
Principally, though, it's Time Out for the Decider. We don't know the how but we do know the why and it's only a question of time.
He might not know it yet. There are, in fact, questions about what exactly he does know. While at the same time there are fewer and fewer questions about what he doesn't know. He doesn't know that you never start a war unless there is a very good reason to. He doesn't know that you never start a war unless you KNOW you can win it. He doesn't know you never start a war ill-prepared, unfunded, without real allies in a faraway, foreign, hostile land when your nation is already up to its eye balls in debt.
But he is about to learn about that. As are the American people. And when they find out what the real economic consequences of the Bush Administration's combined economic and foreign policy failure will be for them, Mr and Mrs Joe Average, then they are likely to get angry enough to actually do something. Which is not good news for George W. Bush. The concentration of executive power in his hands might delay the inevitable but it is unlikely to be enough to save him. It ain't over but the fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Unfortunately, whatever happens to George W. from here on in will not be enough to stop the economic train wreck from happening in the United States. Today's data, of course, was not good. This is likely to be the flavour of the data for a while yet. Nothing has been done to address any of the economic problems facing the United States. In fact the situation has been made considerably worse as a result of the financial burden of the Never Ending War on Terror and the George W. Tax Cuts.
The USD is in deep trouble. The U.S. Stock Market is about to find out what that means. For now, U.S. Treasuries are holding up as the whole financial market factors in RECESSION. U.S. Treasuries, for an offshore holder, are still poison because of the risk, nay near certainty, of a further substantial depreciation in the USD. Which means that the U.S. Treasury market is not "risk free" right now, it is simply likely to be the best performing sector for a U.S. Domestic Investor. For a Foreign Investor there is nothing remotely attractive on offer in the United States right now.
What is likely to happen from here is this:
First the USD gets hit. Then Stocks. Initially Treasuries will rally. U.S. Treasuries will underperform Fixed Interest instruments in the rest of the world and are ultimately expected to see selling pressure. Unless, of course, by some miracle innocent offshore investors can be persuaded to rock up to the next few Treasury Auctions. And that's something I wouldn't bet on.
When it's all done, in addition to the damage associated with the Real Estate Implosion, the average American is likely to find himself considerably poorer.
Why do I think that George W. could not have a more fitting legacy?
OIL 62.80
GOLD 655.00
GOLD is up, some more. Surprise, surprise. Should we see real panic next week then the case for GOLD will be stronger still.
This particular financial market crisis is not over yet.
Labels: Economic Downturn in the U.S., Financial Market Crisis, George W.
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It seems to me that two wonderful events happened in the last few days and I'm happy to see both waiting opportunities for us westerners fed up with war to embrace. The Pope is actively healing wounds with most of our Muslim brothers and sisters on the planet and The President of Iran Ahmadinejad has given the opportunity for Americans to back out gracefully from this mess in Iraq. A war that should never have happened in the first place. President Bush and his administration has lied to the world and has turned our planet into a hot oven of danger to mankind. No I'm not excusing radical Muslims for there crimes and while we are on the subject, name one country on the planet who's not guilty of committing evil against another. We all have our radicals from every corner of the planet bent on hate, but the bulk of the planet are lovers of peace and we are the majority. The point I'm making here is our leaders on the planet are screwing things up so bad that they are leading us to a road of certain annihilation and it's time we start handing out a few pink slips for this incompetence, starting with the number one danger to freedom, George W. Bush. I'm sure George has his good side if we look real hard, I don't believe any man is completely capable of pure evil but George needs to right his wrongs, apologize to his countrymen and begin to turn his attitude around for the better of Americans. He needs to fire his administration, hand in his resignation and pass the power over to the house leader Nancy Pelosa. Maybe having a woman in power will usher our sorry sad planet back onto the road of recovery for all living creatures. I see America as a leader for peace, but the people need to remove this loony tune who is only committed at fattening the pockets of the privileged rich and powerful few. Its time to take America back from the corporate dominators who have no use for America's constitution, human rights, and our freedoms. Only profits of power and greed are their motivators and the only interest they have in you is consumerism and choking debt. The first thing we all need to do for the road back to peace is to face our fears, such as the manufactured fears of corporate media. IE FOX News, Remember that the majority rules and the majority in our planet want peace and justice for all mankind. Lets Rock this Joint!
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